CDC says Swine Flu threat is going away

The nation’s epidemic of new H1N1 flu may have peaked except in New York, New Jersey and New England, a leading federal health expert said Tuesday.

“In the country as a whole, influenza is starting to decrease,” says Ann Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The agency has tallied 6,764 confirmed or probable cases and 10 deaths nationwide, Schuchat says, more than half of the global total of 12,954 cases reported Tuesday by the World Health Organization. Laboratory testing indicates that the new H1N1 virus — commonly referred to as swine flu— accounts for almost all of the flu virus now circulating nationwide.

Federal health officials haven’t dismissed the possibility that the worst is yet to come. Far from it, Schuchat says, noting that the horrific 1918 flu epidemic, which killed 20 million people in the United States alone, was preceded by a mild “herald” wave of cases in the spring, followed by devastating waves of illness in the fall.

“That 1918 experience is in our minds,” Schuchat says.

The CDC is weighting some big questions though like:

One decision already has been made: Seasonal flu vaccine is being made now. Soon, vaccine makers will be ready to switch to making a swine flu vaccine. Here are the questions that must be answered:

• Should we really make a swine flu vaccine?
• Should we base a vaccine on the current virus? Flu viruses change rapidly. Vaccine against the current virus might be far less effective against a changed virus.
• Should we wait to see if the virus changes? If vaccine production doesn’t start soon, swine flu vaccine won’t be ready when it’s needed.
• Will people need one shot of vaccine, or two?
• Will immune-stimulating adjuvants make the vaccine more potent — or lead to an unacceptably high level of side effects?
• As vaccine becomes available, who should get the vaccine first? Who should be sent to the end of the line?

Key data will come from what swine flu does in the Southern Hemisphere this summer, as that part of the world enters its flu season.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) today reaffirmed its decision not to declare a world flu pandemic until swine flu clearly becomes as severe in other parts of the world as it has been in the U.S. and Mexico.

The WHO may decide to raise its caution level in ways less likely to sow the seeds of panic than a pandemic alert, Keiji Fukuda, MD, WHO interim assistant director-general for health security and environment, said today at a news conference.

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